My father, Zhao Lichun, is in the name of Tiggo!

Chapter 227

Longhu Group went public on the back of a bull,

and it came with the name of Handong key project,

and was favored by the capital market.

Within 2 hours after listing,

the stock appreciated more than doubled,

like a monkey hanging in the sky.

There were too many people and too little porridge.

The subscription amount was 30 times more than the issuance amount,

and the underwriter had to draw lots,

to decide who would be the public shareholder of Longhu Group.

In the private room of the Landlord Meeting of the Peninsula Hotel,

Huang Shih-tung and others opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate in advance: "Good luck, this is a good first shot, and everything will go smoothly later."

You know,

Now it is issued to the public,

and the big money owners such as Cheung Kong and China Holdings who are ready to carry the sedan chair have not come in yet!

The shares of Dragon Tiger Group appreciated by more than double,

This is not only the market's acceptance,

but also the public's recognition!

When the big moneybags come in to carry the sedan chair,

Huang Shitong said firmly: "We are still conservative. Today, the stock price must break 10 yuan."

Everyone cheered: "Brother Tong is right. We will also carry out a large aircraft carrier."

They are experts,

It is normal to hype up the stock by dozens of times on the opening day,

But that kind of stock,

will become a penny stock in the end.

Of course, Dragon Tiger Group's stocks cannot become penny stocks,

So the process of hype is very particular.

Huang Shitong picked up the mobile phone,

He said calmly: "First, let Zhao Sir announce the good news, so that Zhao Sir knows what we are doing."

In fact, why does Huang Shitong need to announce the good news?

Liu Guanghan at the exchange reported the situation to Zhao Ruihu as soon as possible.

"Okay."

After answering the phone, Zhao Ruihu smiled at Ye Baoyi beside him and said, "One of our Handong companies is listed on the Hong Kong stock market today, and the opening price has doubled."

Ye Baoyi is very familiar with the situation of Hong Kong stocks,

and said, "Is that Longhu Company?"

"That's right!"

Zhao Ruihu sighed, "It's not easy to run a private enterprise. We have just started to develop there, and there are not many good channels for external financing."

"So we can only come to Hong Kong Island to borrow chickens to lay eggs."

Of course, Longhu can also be listed in China.

Currently, domestic transactions are booming.

If Longhu goes public,

it may also become a leader.

However, Zhao Ruihu is not a short-sighted person.

He positioned Longhu as a large platform with a broad vision.

What's the point of being a bad banker in China?

Of course, you should come to Hong Kong Island.

Ye Baoyi said: "The opening is oversubscribed, which means that the market is very supportive."

"But, I think you don't seem very happy, Mr. Zhao."

The stock price has more than doubled,

which means that the company's market value has more than doubled,

This is a big leap,

Of course it is a good thing.

Zhao Ruihu shook his head,

He said slowly: "The appreciation of stocks does not mean that investors are partial to Dragon and Tiger, but it is due to the prosperity of the market.

Other listed stocks have appreciated, and some have appreciated more dramatically than Dragon and Tiger stocks."

Zhao Ruihu smiled and said: "Now it is just a small step, and the real test is still to come."

"To make investors truly trust and favor Dragon and Tiger stocks, it ultimately depends on the future performance of Dragon and Tiger and the benefits to shareholders."

Ye Baoyi was impressed,

He had seen Zhao Ruihu's style,

Knowing that this Mr. Zhao was very extravagant,

But he did not expect this owner to be so calm.

It is difficult to draw the bones of a tiger,

It seems that,

Sir Zhao's heart is indeed completely different from the surface.

"If the stock appreciation is so fast, then the depreciation will also happen in an instant." Zhao Ruihu sighed: "The securities market changes rapidly and unpredictably, and the risks are indeed much greater than other markets."

Just for these words,

Ye Baoyi thought that his trip this time was worthwhile,

This Mr. Zhao does have a certain understanding of the financial field,

The most important thing is to be calm enough,

He said: "Mr. Zhao, since you have a premonition that the financial crisis is coming, why do you want Longhu to go public at this time?"

Zhao Ruihu said calmly: "It is because the crisis is coming, so before that, we have to prepare more bullets."

He made an analogy: "Professor, have you Have you been to the north of China?"

"The scenery of the north is snowy."

Zhao Ruihu spread his hands,

Then he said: "It is cold and frozen. In winter, it is difficult to have land for farming outdoors."

"So, people there habitually store things in cellars before winter comes."

"Store cabbages, radishes, potatoes and other things suitable for storage in large quantities in the cellar. In this way, everyone can eat hot pot and sing songs when winter comes, and then happily get through this winter."

Ye Baoyi nodded slowly,

Sir Zhao's views were really sharp,

He asked again: "Sir Zhao, how should Hong Kong Island get through this winter? 〃?"

Zhao Ruihu examined Ye Baoyi in front of him,

After a moment,

he said slowly: "When the enemy comes, the general will stop it, and when the water comes, the earth will cover it. Before that, of course, we should kill the rich."

Ye Baoyi was stunned,

Kill the rich?

Which rich?

Where's rich?

His mind raced,

He vaguely thought of something,

Immediately admired!

"Professor, look at Hong Kong Island, from Admiralty, Central, Tsim Sha Tsui to Causeway Bay."

"The fertile land is so small."

"The rich can see through it at a glance."

Zhao Ruihu pointed to the sea in front of him: "But it is different now."

"Soon, it will return to the embrace of the motherland."

"Don't look at the motherland as it is still poor. For the sake of the people, it will do its best."

He asked: "Father and son work together and have the same heart and mind."

"Will capital fight to the end?"

When two armies fight, the brave one wins.

One side has the determination to die,

and has sufficient food reserves.

One side just wants to kill the big guys.

A smile appeared on Ye Baoyi's face.

He bowed respectfully to Zhao Ruihu: "Sir Zhao."

This is a scholar,

with integrity,

and judgment,

Ye Baoyi said: "If Sir Zhao is the commander, I am willing to follow him."

Zhao Ruihu pulled Ye Baoyi up affectionately: "Professor, this is a bit serious."

"Friends."

Zhao Ruihu is not so arrogant.

Hong Kong Island has the Financial Secretary and the HKMA,

They are all professionals,

Zhao Ruihu doesn't think that this kind of thing will happen to him,

What's more,

He wants to take the opportunity to lay out in the Asia-Pacific region,

take over related important industries,

so as to work hard for the rise of China in the future.

"Professor, I have read your economics papers many times."

Zhao Ruihu was full of praise: "I have to say that the professor really sees through human nature."

Economy,

In fact, the core is people,

Since it is people,

then it is human nature,

Zhao Ruihu has actually read Ye Baoyi's paper: "It is thought-provoking."

Ye Baoyi was moved,

He has seen clearly,

Sir Zhao is interested in him.

"Thank you."

Ye Baoyi said: "I'm used to teaching, so I want to express my opinions to the outside world out of habit."

"This is a good habit."

Zhao Ruihu praised: "If everyone is selfish, how can we talk about development?"

"Only when a hundred schools of thought contend can a hundred flowers bloom."

He suddenly stretched out his hand to Ye Baoyi solemnly: "Professor."

"I think the financial crisis is the harvest of capitalism from developing countries."

"If you can't be Nuwa, then be Gonggong!"

"Smash the old world again and create a new world."

Ye Baoyi took a breath of cold air in his heart,

He suddenly figured it out,

So,

This big household refers to the four little tigers?

What an ambitious person!

"Sir Zhao!"

Ye Baoyi took Zhao Ruihu's outstretched hand without hesitation,

He said: "If you don't mind, I'd like to join us in this great event."

"Hahaha."

Zhao Ruihu was immediately overjoyed: "I am happier to have Mr. Ye than to have Dragon Tiger Group listed."

"Let's go, let's get drunk today."

Zhao Ruihu took Ye Baoyi's hand and said with a smile: "We talked about heroes over wine."

"Today, let's drink and talk about the economy!"

The world looks big,

In fact,

between the five continents and four oceans,

there are only a few hundred countries and regions with names,

and if we look at them again,

there are only a handful of powerful countries,

and the rest,

are just fat pigs in the pigpen,

and will be pulled out and slaughtered for the New Year at the right time.

There is no doubt that

the four little tigers in the Asia-Pacific region are the fat pigs to be slaughtered.

Ye Baoyi admires that Grandpa Zhao Ruihu actually has a considerable understanding of finance,

and even more admires his ambition and pattern,

after returning to the table,

he immediately opened the floodgates.

"The economic growth in East Asia is the result of long-term increase in capital investment."

Zhao Ruihu has very unique insights and understandings in macroeconomics,

but when it comes to detailed theory,

he is definitely not as good as Ye Baoyi, a professional economics professor,

so he listened carefully,

just regarded himself as a listener.

Ye Baoyi said: "It is actually a hot money trap."

There are several common problems in the South Asian market,

both short-term borrowing and long-term investment are mismatched,

borrowing foreign exchange (US dollars or Japanese yen) to invest in domestic currency.

This is the hot money bubble,

during the expansion of the bubble,

more and more money will be needed,

generally countries will therefore fix interest rates,

and then encourage enterprises to borrow from abroad,

which will cause financial and industrial enterprises to bear additional foreign exchange risks.

A large number of credit transactions have seriously leveraged the economy,

which will push up asset prices to an unsustainable level.

Zhao Ruihu smiled and said: "This is the Sisyphus that the professor talked about."

"Yes."

Ye Baoyi was excited,

he said: "Assets are pushed higher and higher, and soon they reach the top of the mountain. What will happen?"

"Bang! ”

Ye Baoyi made a firework shape with his hand: "The rocks on the top of the mountain will roll down, and because of inertia, they will roll faster and faster."

"The collapse of asset prices will force individuals and companies to default on their debts. The huge panic will lead to a large-scale flight of debt claims, resulting in credit tightening and bankruptcy."

The market is like this,

It is already scary enough to just use a point to lead the whole,

What if,

it collapses completely?

Ye Baoyi sighed: "When this happens, everyone wants to withdraw cash, and foreign investors also want to."

"The foreign exchange market will be flooded with the currencies of the crisis countries, diluting the currency value and increasing the pressure of depreciation."

"In order to avoid currency collapse, the governments of these countries have raised domestic interest rates to extremely high levels. In order to interfere in the foreign exchange market, they have to use foreign exchange reserves to consolidate their positions.Buy the excess domestic currency at a fixed exchange rate. "

These are all things that have happened in history,

It's like reincarnation,

Every time,

It may change its appearance,

but it is exactly the same in essence.

When the world began to turn from an agricultural country to an industrial country,

The planet had become a village,

They exchanged what they had with each other,

To develop, they had to buy equipment and export products from outside,

which inevitably involved foreign exchange!

At this time,

A country became a company,

The only thing that really had value in its account was foreign exchange,

This was limited!

When the foreign exchange in the account became less and less...

Ye Baoyi said: ". 〃 Dollar Tide."

"The Federal Reserve led by Greenspan fought inflation by raising interest rates, making the United States a more attractive investment destination than Southeast Asian countries.

For those South Asian countries that have pegged their currencies to the US dollar, the rising US dollar makes their exports more expensive, loses international competitiveness, and also causes Southeast Asian factories to relocate to the mainland with lower costs. ”

“Starting this spring, Southeast Asian countries' export growth expectations have declined significantly, making their current accounts worse.”

Numbers don't lie.

It directly shows that the economies of Southeast Asian countries are weakening.

Ye Baoyi has studied it for a long time.

Immediately, he said with certainty: "The occurrence of an economic crisis is inevitable, but I don't know how big it will be."

Zhao Ruihu was very sure of this: "It's very big."

"The pigs have been raised for so long, they are fat enough."

"Western capital is sharpening its knives. They come here to eat fat meat, not ribs."

Ye Bao nodded: "What Zhao Sir said is right. ”

“From the current perspective…”

He said: “The Four Little Dragons and the Four Little Tigers have the greatest possibility of an economic crisis.”

The Four Little Dragons and the Four Little Tigers are the first economies to develop in Asia,

which is also a hot money economy,

According to Ye Baoyi’s previous analysis,

this is indeed very likely,

and Zhao Ruihu, who knew the result in advance, couldn’t help but applaud: “Great, great. "

Ye Baoyi was suddenly in a trance,

Four Little Dragons, Four Little Tigers?

Dragon and Tiger?

He suddenly felt that the world was both real and vague,

Coincidences are everywhere,

Or,

Is this God's will?

Ye Baoyi suddenly felt awe~!

He studied economics,

The longer he studied,

The more he found that the ancient saying of "one fate, two luck, three feng shui" made sense.

The rise of a great power requires luck,

If it is changed to a person,

is it not the same?

The Four Little Dragons and Four Little Tigers are about to suffer an economic crisis,

And Zhao Sir's Dragon and TigerThe group went public at this time.

Ye Baoyi was shocked for no reason.

Could it be that

God wanted him to find Zhao Sir himself,

And God wanted him to follow Zhao Sir?

Zhao Ruihu asked: "Professor, where do you think the most likely place will happen first?"

Ye Baoyi came back to his senses,

Unconsciously,

He was quite in awe of Zhao Ruihu,

He immediately said: "Sir Zhao, in fact, your report has already pointed it out - Dai!"

Of course, Zhao Ruihu did not explicitly mention it in the report,

But the tendency of the data will be seen by those who are interested,

Ye Baoyi is this person,

He said: "Dai."

The reasons for the outbreak of the economic crisis are very complex,

and there is also a lot of uncertainty,

For example, the fragility of the internal structure, internal and external shocks, bad politics and mismanagement, etc. Ye Baoyi said: "Crisis is a disease, strictly speaking, it is a complication." Zhao Ruihu smiled, This is quite right, Most of the patients are not cured because of complications. The same is true for economic crises. It often breaks out in the weakest places, which are usually the most risky and least regulated, and then leads to other problems, and finally falls like a domino. Dai is a good example. As early as the early 1990s, when Japanese manufacturers began to help Dai build light industrial capacity, foreign direct investment flowed into Dai in large quantities. Since then, Thailand has mainly obtained short-term foreign funds through the Bangkok International Banking (BIBF).

Due to the interest rate differential of about 4% to 6% between the US dollar and the Thai baht,

Yen carry trade is profitable in Tai,

and the depreciation of the yen makes such trades more profitable.

Especially since last year,

Tai has obtained tens of billions of dollars in short-term funds,

which has caused its foreign debt to rise sharply to 112.8 billion US dollars,

accounting for 62% of GDP,

of which about 96 billion US dollars are borrowed by the private sector,

and most of them are short-term funds.

The problem is that

Tai itself has only 38 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves!

This is a big problem!